Who is ahead in the latest opinion polls, Kamala or Trump?
The US presidential election is just one day away. The country’s voters will vote in the presidential election tomorrow, except for Monday. This election was also supposed to be a repeat of the 2020 elections. But last July, the current US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to be the candidate of the Democratic Party. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris. Through this, Kamala became the candidate of the Democrats. Now the big question is, is Kamala Harris going to be the first woman president of the United States, or will Donald Trump be the president of the United States for the second time?
Public opinion polls are regularly conducted to determine which of the candidates is more likely to win the US presidential election. In the latest opinion polls, it was discussed whether Kamala or Trump is ahead.
Who is ahead nationally in polls?
National polls show that Kamala is slightly ahead of Trump on average. Kamala Harris has been ahead of Trump since becoming the Democratic nominee in July. According to the average of the national opinion polls, the support for Kamala Harris is 48 percent as of Sunday. And Trump’s support is 47 percent.
Support for Kamala Harris was high in the first weeks of the campaign after becoming the Democratic nominee. At the end of August, Orange was ahead of Trump by nearly four points.
Since then, Kamala Harris has retained the former position in September and early October. However, in the last few weeks, it has been seen that the gap between Trump and Kamala has narrowed in the polls.
National polls are very important in determining how popular a presidential candidate is across the country. However national surveys are not the best way to predict election results. This is because the President of the United States is elected through Electoral College voting. In this system, separate Electoral College votes are allocated to each state based on population
There are 538 Electoral College votes in the presidential election. 270 of these are required to win. The candidate who gets the most votes in a state gets all the Electoral College votes.
Who is ahead in swing states?
There are 50 states in the United States. Past elections have shown that most states vote for a particular party candidate. Candidates of certain parties win in these states. Because of this, states that do not have a history of voting for a particular party become important in determining the outcome of the vote. There are seven such kingdoms, which are called ‘oscillating kingdoms’.
The seven swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The latest polls of voters in swing states show that the margin between Trump and Orange in these states is so narrow that it is difficult to say which candidate is ahead. As a result, it is not possible to predict that any candidate has a heavyweight.
Since Harris ran, polls have shown swings in support for the two candidates in swing states. Since early August, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina have seen several swings in support between the two candidates. That is, sometimes one was ahead, sometimes the other. But at the moment, Donald Trump is ahead in these states.
Kamala Harris leads Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in three other swing states in early August polls. However, his popularity has also fluctuated in the survey. In these states, Kamala was ahead of Trump sometimes by two points, sometimes by three points. But now the gap has narrowed further. At the moment, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by a small margin.
All three states were once Democratic strongholds. But in 2016 everything turned upside down. Trump snatched victory from Democrats in three states in that election eight years ago. He was elected president of the service. However, in the 2020 election, the Democratic candidate Biden won these states. It remains to be seen whether Kamala will be able to retain the victory this time.
“US elections by the numbers”
Below are some important facts of this year’s polls at a glance based on numbers:
two
Several independent candidates are contesting for the presidential election. But in the end, this competition is mainly between two candidates from two major parties. This year’s two candidates are Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and Donald Trump from the Republican Party.
five
Voting will be held on November 5. In the United States, presidential elections are traditionally held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.
seven
The oscillating states are seven. Oscillating meaning, that no party has a clear lead in these seven states. These states have unbiased voters who decide to vote for any candidate. Swing states usually play a key role in determining the margin of victory in elections. The seven swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Both Kamala and Trump are looking to woo the voters of these seven states to ensure their victory. For this, they are continuously campaigning in these states.
In most opinion polls, these states are likely to be decided by narrow margins as this election looks like a close fight.
34 to 435
Voters will not only choose the country’s president on election day. They will also reshape the US Congress. They will elect 34 senators and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, in the Nov. 5 vote.
Members of the United States House of Representatives are elected for two-year terms. Republicans currently hold the majority in the House of Representatives.
The Senate, the upper house of Congress, has 100 seats. A senator is elected for six years.
538
A president is elected in the United States by 538 Electoral College votes, not by direct popular vote. At least 270 votes are needed to win.
50 states in the United States. Electoral votes vary from state to state. The number of Electoral Colleges is determined based on the number of congressional districts each state has. With two senators from each state becoming the Electoral College. The number of districts in a state is determined based on the total population size.
For example, the remote state of Vermont has only three Electoral College votes. As usual, California has the most Electoral College votes, 54.
7 lakh 74 thousand
According to Pew Research Center statistics, 774,000 poll workers worked at the polls in 2020.
There are three types of poll workers in the United States.
A large number of election workers welcome voters to polling stations, assist with language issues, set up voting equipment, and verify voter IDs and registrations.
Election officials are selected, hired, or appointed to perform more important duties, including training election workers.
And political parties appoint polling agents on their behalf. They monitor the counting of votes.
7 and a half crores
Up to November 2, seven and a half crore voters cast their votes in advance, according to the University of Florida’s data center.
Most US states have in-person or early voting by mail. This early voting system brings all voters onto the ballot.
24 crores and 40 lakhs
There are 244 million eligible voters in the United States at this time. It remains to be seen how many of them will vote.
Two-thirds (66 percent) of voters cast ballots in 2020, according to data on the Pew Research Center’s website. This is the highest vote in any national election in the United States since 1900.
